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10 of 10 matches with xG: 21 goals from 25.0 xG (0.84 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Urawa 0–0 Machida Zelvia | 0.89–0.26 | 50% · 39% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Urawa had 50% |
| Kashiwa Reysol 2–0 Yokohama FC | 0.99–0.54 | 46% · 35% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Kashiwa Reysol |
| FC Tokyo 3–1 Fagiano Okayama | 1.47–1.17 | 44% · 26% · 30% | Win in line with xG for FC Tokyo |
| Yokohama F. Marinos 3–0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1.11–0.44 | 52% · 33% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Yokohama F. Marinos |
| Shimizu S-pulse 1–0 Tokyo Verdy | 0.25–1.29 | 7% · 29% · 64% | Won against the xG: Shimizu S-pulse |
| Nagoya Grampus 0–2 Gamba Osaka | 1.29–2.03 | 24% · 21% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Gamba Osaka |
| Kyoto Sanga 1–1 Kashima | 0.66–1.61 | 15% · 25% · 60% | Draw against the xG: Kashima had 60% |
| Cerezo Osaka 2–0 Kawasaki Frontale | 1.53–1.25 | 44% · 25% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Cerezo Osaka |
| Albirex Niigata 2–2 Vissel Kobe | 1.10–3.94 | 6% · 8% · 86% | Draw against the xG: Vissel Kobe had 86% |
| Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 Shonan Bellmare | 2.61–0.57 | 81% · 13% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Avispa Fukuoka |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.