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9 of 10 matches with xG: 17 goals from 23.4 xG (0.73 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima 2–0 FC Tokyo | 1.80–1.23 | 51% · 23% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Kashima |
| Kawasaki Frontale 0–1 Kyoto Sanga | 1.47–1.36 | 40% · 25% · 35% | Close call, Kyoto Sanga won |
| Vissel Kobe 0–1 Avispa Fukuoka | 0.81–1.14 | 26% · 31% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Avispa Fukuoka |
| Tokyo Verdy 0–1 Gamba Osaka | 0.90–1.65 | 20% · 24% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Gamba Osaka |
| Albirex Niigata 2–2 Cerezo Osaka | 2.12–1.78 | 46% · 21% · 33% | Draw in line with xG |
| Nagoya Grampus 1–2 Machida Zelvia | 1.19–1.05 | 39% · 29% · 32% | Close call, Machida Zelvia won |
| Fagiano Okayama 1–1 Shimizu S-pulse | 1.38–1.54 | 34% · 25% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–0 Yokohama FC | 1.51–0.23 | 70% · 24% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
| Urawa 0–2 Kashiwa Reysol | 1.42–0.77 | 52% · 27% · 20% | Won against the xG: Kashiwa Reysol |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.