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9 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 21.7 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima 2–1 Albirex Niigata | 1.01–1.41 | 27% · 27% · 46% | Won against the xG: Kashima |
| Kashiwa Reysol 2–1 Cerezo Osaka | 1.31–0.58 | 55% · 29% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Kashiwa Reysol |
| FC Tokyo 3–1 Nagoya Grampus | 2.28–1.41 | 57% · 20% · 23% | Win in line with xG for FC Tokyo |
| Machida Zelvia 0–1 Tokyo Verdy | 0.91–1.52 | 23% · 26% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Tokyo Verdy |
| Shonan Bellmare 2–1 Urawa | 2.54–0.53 | 81% · 13% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Shonan Bellmare |
| Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1.17–0.49 | 53% · 32% · 15% | Draw against the xG: Shimizu S-pulse had 53% |
| Vissel Kobe 1–1 Kyoto Sanga | 1.88–0.50 | 71% · 20% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Vissel Kobe had 71% |
| Fagiano Okayama 2–0 Gamba Osaka | 2.10–0.41 | 77% · 17% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Fagiano Okayama |
| Avispa Fukuoka 1–2 Kawasaki Frontale | 1.05–0.64 | 45% · 33% · 22% | Won against the xG: Kawasaki Frontale |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.