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9 of 10 matches with xG: 22 goals from 21.9 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kashiwa Reysol 1–1 Kawasaki Frontale | 0.84–0.70 | 36% · 36% · 28% | Draw in line with xG |
| Yokohama FC 1–0 Fagiano Okayama | 1.42–0.98 | 47% · 27% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Yokohama FC |
| Shimizu S-pulse 2–0 Albirex Niigata | 1.71–0.76 | 60% · 24% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Shimizu S-pulse |
| Nagoya Grampus 2–2 Vissel Kobe | 1.65–1.54 | 41% · 23% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Kyoto Sanga 1–1 Urawa | 1.26–1.06 | 41% · 28% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Kashima 4–0 Tokyo Verdy | 2.00–0.60 | 71% · 19% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Kashima |
| FC Tokyo 0–1 Machida Zelvia | 0.62–0.85 | 25% · 37% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Machida Zelvia |
| Gamba Osaka 2–1 Avispa Fukuoka | 0.88–1.10 | 29% · 31% · 40% | Close call, Gamba Osaka won |
| Cerezo Osaka 1–2 Shonan Bellmare | 1.32–2.59 | 18% · 17% · 65% | Win in line with xG for Shonan Bellmare |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.