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9 of 10 matches with xG: 17 goals from 22.0 xG (0.77 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Verdy 2–1 Nagoya Grampus | 0.54–0.77 | 23% · 39% · 37% | Close call, Tokyo Verdy won |
| Machida Zelvia 1–0 Albirex Niigata | 1.52–0.59 | 60% · 26% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Machida Zelvia |
| Yokohama FC 2–0 Cerezo Osaka | 0.83–0.77 | 34% · 35% · 31% | Close call, Yokohama FC won |
| Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 FC Tokyo | 2.13–0.35 | 79% · 16% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Avispa Fukuoka |
| Shimizu S-pulse 1–2 Kyoto Sanga | 1.94–2.22 | 35% · 20% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Kyoto Sanga |
| Kashima 1–1 Urawa | 0.85–1.31 | 24% · 28% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Fagiano Okayama 0–0 Kawasaki Frontale | 2.25–0.91 | 68% · 19% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Fagiano Okayama had 68% |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1–1 Kashiwa Reysol | 2.01–1.00 | 61% · 21% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Sanfrecce Hiroshima had 61% |
| Shonan Bellmare 1–2 Vissel Kobe | 0.89–1.16 | 28% · 30% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Vissel Kobe |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.