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10 of 10 matches with xG: 23 goals from 20.0 xG (1.15 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yokohama F. Marinos 0–0 Tokyo Verdy | 0.18–0.74 | 8% · 45% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| Fagiano Okayama 1–0 FC Tokyo | 0.64–0.87 | 25% · 36% · 39% | Close call, Fagiano Okayama won |
| Machida Zelvia 2–2 Kawasaki Frontale | 1.29–2.29 | 21% · 20% · 60% | Draw against the xG: Kawasaki Frontale had 60% |
| Yokohama FC 2–0 Shimizu S-pulse | 0.68–0.47 | 35% · 43% · 22% | Close call, Yokohama FC won |
| Vissel Kobe 0–1 Albirex Niigata | 1.63–0.85 | 56% · 25% · 19% | Won against the xG: Albirex Niigata |
| Avispa Fukuoka 1–0 Urawa | 1.32–0.45 | 59% · 29% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Avispa Fukuoka |
| Kashima 3–4 Kyoto Sanga | 2.26–1.35 | 58% · 20% · 22% | Won against the xG: Kyoto Sanga |
| Kashiwa Reysol 1–0 Gamba Osaka | 0.39–0.69 | 18% · 44% · 38% | Won against the xG: Kashiwa Reysol |
| Shonan Bellmare 2–1 Nagoya Grampus | 0.62–0.94 | 23% · 35% · 42% | Won against the xG: Shonan Bellmare |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2–1 Cerezo Osaka | 0.91–1.45 | 24% · 27% · 50% | Won against the xG: Sanfrecce Hiroshima |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.