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10 of 10 matches with xG: 16 goals from 25.6 xG (0.62 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo 1–1 Kashiwa Reysol | 1.79–1.46 | 46% · 23% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Shimizu S-pulse 1–1 Kawasaki Frontale | 1.74–2.08 | 33% · 21% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| Gamba Osaka 2–0 Nagoya Grampus | 2.74–0.06 | 92% · 7% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Gamba Osaka |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0–1 Fagiano Okayama | 0.75–0.98 | 27% · 33% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Fagiano Okayama |
| Avispa Fukuoka 2–1 Yokohama F. Marinos | 1.80–0.62 | 66% · 22% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Avispa Fukuoka |
| Tokyo Verdy 0–1 Vissel Kobe | 0.77–0.85 | 30% · 35% · 35% | Close call, Vissel Kobe won |
| Cerezo Osaka 1–0 Kashima | 2.36–0.34 | 83% · 13% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Cerezo Osaka |
| Kyoto Sanga 2–0 Shonan Bellmare | 1.83–1.66 | 42% · 22% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Kyoto Sanga |
| Machida Zelvia 0–2 Urawa | 0.92–0.65 | 40% · 35% · 25% | Won against the xG: Urawa |
| Albirex Niigata 0–0 Yokohama FC | 0.90–1.34 | 25% · 28% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.