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9 of 11 matches with xG: 32 goals from 24.5 xG (1.31 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap 3–2 VVV Venlo | 2.55–1.39 | 63% · 18% · 19% | Win in line with xG for De Graafschap |
| Den Bosch 2–0 Jong Ajax | 0.96–1.01 | 33% · 31% · 36% | Close call, Den Bosch won |
| Dordrecht 1–0 Cambuur | 1.27–0.45 | 57% · 30% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Dordrecht |
| FC Eindhoven 1–0 Jong Utrecht | 0.26–1.20 | 8% · 31% · 61% | Won against the xG: FC Eindhoven |
| FC OSS 4–0 MVV | 2.13–1.97 | 43% · 20% · 37% | Win in line with xG for FC OSS |
| Helmond Sport 1–3 Roda | 1.13–2.42 | 16% · 18% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Roda |
| ADO Den Haag 5–1 Willem II | 2.00–0.43 | 75% · 18% · 7% | Win in line with xG for ADO Den Haag |
| Jong AZ 2–3 Waalwijk | 1.17–1.56 | 29% · 25% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Waalwijk |
| Jong PSV U21 3–1 Emmen | 1.98–0.64 | 69% · 20% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Jong PSV U21 |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.