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9 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 31.4 xG (0.86 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II 1–1 Emmen | 2.41–0.56 | 78% · 15% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Willem II had 78% |
| Almere City FC 3–0 VVV Venlo | 0.84–1.71 | 18% · 24% · 58% | Won against the xG: Almere City FC |
| Helmond Sport 2–1 Jong Ajax | 0.58–0.59 | 28% · 43% · 29% | Close call, Helmond Sport won |
| Jong AZ 0–1 FC OSS | 1.10–1.57 | 27% · 25% · 48% | Win in line with xG for FC OSS |
| Jong Utrecht 3–2 Den Bosch | 2.41–1.79 | 52% · 19% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Jong Utrecht |
| ADO Den Haag 3–2 De Graafschap | 3.24–3.22 | 42% · 16% · 42% | Win in line with xG for ADO Den Haag |
| Roda 1–2 Dordrecht | 3.18–1.71 | 67% · 15% · 18% | Won against the xG: Dordrecht |
| Vitesse 3–1 Jong PSV U21 | 2.51–0.71 | 77% · 15% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Vitesse |
| Waalwijk 1–0 MVV | 2.67–0.64 | 80% · 13% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Waalwijk |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.