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8 of 10 matches with xG: 24 goals from 23.5 xG (1.02 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur 0–0 Helmond Sport | 0.35–1.30 | 10% · 29% · 61% | Draw against the xG: Helmond Sport had 61% |
| Den Bosch 2–1 Willem II | 1.88–1.76 | 42% · 22% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Den Bosch |
| Dordrecht 1–2 Jong Utrecht | 1.11–0.73 | 44% · 32% · 24% | Won against the xG: Jong Utrecht |
| Emmen 4–2 Jong AZ | 2.48–0.21 | 87% · 11% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Emmen |
| VVV Venlo 0–3 ADO Den Haag | 0.86–2.36 | 12% · 17% · 71% | Win in line with xG for ADO Den Haag |
| FC OSS 1–2 Almere City FC | 1.77–1.82 | 38% · 22% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Almere City FC |
| Jong Ajax 2–0 Vitesse | 0.90–1.30 | 26% · 28% · 46% | Won against the xG: Jong Ajax |
| Jong PSV U21 3–1 Waalwijk | 1.93–2.72 | 27% · 18% · 55% | Won against the xG: Jong PSV U21 |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.