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7 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 24.9 xG (1.21 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambuur 4–0 MVV | 3.24–0.57 | 88% · 9% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Cambuur |
| VVV Venlo 3–1 Dordrecht | 1.42–2.60 | 19% · 18% · 63% | Won against the xG: VVV Venlo |
| FC Eindhoven 3–2 Jong AZ | 2.05–0.53 | 73% · 18% · 8% | Win in line with xG for FC Eindhoven |
| FC OSS 2–3 De Graafschap | 1.23–1.25 | 36% · 27% · 37% | Win in line with xG for De Graafschap |
| Almere City FC 4–2 Emmen | 3.19–1.74 | 66% · 15% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Almere City FC |
| Den Bosch 2–0 Vitesse | 1.92–1.12 | 56% · 22% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Den Bosch |
| Helmond Sport 2–2 Willem II | 1.68–2.33 | 28% · 20% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Willem II had 52% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.