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10 of 10 matches with xG: 33 goals from 27.2 xG (1.21 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Volendam 1–2 De Graafschap | 1.07–1.23 | 32% · 28% · 40% | Win in line with xG for De Graafschap |
| Helmond Sport 3–2 FC Eindhoven | 1.72–0.60 | 65% · 23% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Helmond Sport |
| Roda 2–1 Jong AZ | 1.44–0.87 | 50% · 27% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Roda |
| Waalwijk 1–2 Almere City FC | 1.35–1.51 | 34% · 25% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Almere City FC |
| MVV 1–2 VVV Venlo | 1.21–0.94 | 42% · 29% · 29% | Close call, VVV Venlo won |
| Emmen 0–5 Den Bosch | 0.96–3.83 | 5% · 8% · 87% | Win in line with xG for Den Bosch |
| Heracles 2–0 FC OSS | 2.67–0.50 | 83% · 12% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Heracles |
| Jong Ajax 1–1 Vitesse | 0.90–0.72 | 38% · 35% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Jong PSV U21 0–2 NAC Breda | 0.29–3.12 | 2% · 7% · 91% | Win in line with xG for NAC Breda |
| Jong Utrecht 3–2 Dordrecht | 0.80–1.44 | 21% · 27% · 52% | Won against the xG: Jong Utrecht |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.