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9 of 9 matches with xG: 25 goals from 26.1 xG (0.96 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Almere City FC 0–1 Willem II | 1.70–0.35 | 71% · 22% · 7% | Won against the xG: Willem II |
| NAC Breda 1–0 NEC Nijmegen | 1.36–0.44 | 60% · 28% · 12% | Win in line with xG for NAC Breda |
| PSV Eindhoven 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam | 1.74–2.05 | 33% · 21% · 46% | Close call, PSV Eindhoven won |
| Utrecht 3–2 Waalwijk | 1.55–0.86 | 54% · 26% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Utrecht |
| Go Ahead Eagles 4–1 Heracles | 4.44–0.48 | 96% · 3% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Go Ahead Eagles |
| Heerenveen 1–1 PEC Zwolle | 1.78–0.38 | 72% · 21% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Heerenveen had 72% |
| Feyenoord 2–1 Twente | 0.61–0.82 | 25% · 37% · 38% | Close call, Feyenoord won |
| Ajax 3–1 Groningen | 3.32–1.30 | 76% · 13% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Ajax |
| Fortuna Sittard 1–0 AZ Alkmaar | 2.05–0.82 | 66% · 20% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Fortuna Sittard |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.