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9 of 9 matches with xG: 25 goals from 23.9 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto 0–1 Estoril | 2.85–0.41 | 87% · 10% · 3% | Won against the xG: Estoril |
| Chaves 0–2 Benfica | 0.10–2.30 | 1% · 11% · 88% | Win in line with xG for Benfica |
| Famalicao 3–1 Gil Vicente | 0.52–1.05 | 18% · 34% · 48% | Won against the xG: Famalicao |
| SC Braga 6–1 Portimonense | 3.45–0.96 | 83% · 10% · 7% | Win in line with xG for SC Braga |
| Moreirense 1–0 Vitória Guimarães | 0.70–0.56 | 34% · 41% · 25% | Close call, Moreirense won |
| Casa Pia 0–1 Vizela | 0.60–1.35 | 17% · 28% · 55% | Win in line with xG for Vizela |
| Rio Ave 2–0 Boavista | 1.14–0.51 | 51% · 32% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Rio Ave |
| Sporting CP 3–2 Estrela | 2.25–1.74 | 50% · 20% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Sporting CP |
| Farense 2–0 Arouca | 1.97–1.49 | 49% · 22% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Farense |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.