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8 of 9 matches with xG: 17 goals from 16.4 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao 1–0 Arouca | 0.82–0.40 | 43% · 40% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Famalicao |
| Alverca 1–1 Casa Pia | 0.76–0.97 | 27% · 33% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sporting CP 1–0 Moreirense | 2.08–0.55 | 73% · 18% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Sporting CP |
| Nacional 1–0 Academico Viseu | 1.17–0.65 | 48% · 31% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Nacional |
| Santa Clara 1–2 Gil Vicente | 0.79–1.21 | 24% · 30% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Gil Vicente |
| Vitória Guimarães 1–2 FC Porto | 0.74–1.64 | 17% · 24% · 59% | Win in line with xG for FC Porto |
| Estrela 2–3 Benfica | 1.35–1.09 | 43% · 27% · 30% | Close call, Benfica won |
| Rio Ave 0–1 SC Braga | 0.26–1.91 | 4% · 18% · 78% | Win in line with xG for SC Braga |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.