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10 of 10 matches with xG: 31 goals from 26.7 xG (1.16 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves 1–2 Rayo Vallecano | 1.63–1.34 | 44% · 24% · 32% | Close call, Rayo Vallecano won |
| Real Betis 2–1 Levante | 1.51–2.28 | 25% · 20% · 55% | Won against the xG: Real Betis |
| Celta Vigo 1–0 Sevilla | 1.59–0.80 | 56% · 25% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Celta Vigo |
| Espanyol 1–1 Real Sociedad | 2.41–1.40 | 60% · 19% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Espanyol had 60% |
| Getafe 1–0 Osasuna | 0.21–0.51 | 12% · 54% · 34% | Won against the xG: Getafe |
| Girona 1–1 Elche | 0.58–0.18 | 39% · 52% · 10% | Draw in line with xG |
| Mallorca 3–0 Oviedo | 2.65–0.29 | 87% · 10% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Mallorca |
| Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic Club | 1.90–0.81 | 63% · 22% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Real Madrid |
| Valencia 3–1 Barcelona | 1.48–1.52 | 37% · 24% · 39% | Close call, Valencia won |
| Villarreal 5–1 Atletico Madrid | 2.48–1.16 | 66% · 18% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Villarreal |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.