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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 23.1 xG (1.26 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes 0–0 Portland Timbers | 1.21–1.62 | 29% · 25% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Atlanta United FC 2–2 New York City FC | 0.79–0.88 | 30% · 34% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| FC Cincinnati 3–0 Toronto FC | 2.31–0.68 | 74% · 17% · 9% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
| CF Montreal 1–0 Nashville SC | 0.91–1.03 | 31% · 31% · 38% | Close call, CF Montreal won |
| New York Red Bulls 2–2 Charlotte | 1.41–0.70 | 54% · 27% · 19% | Draw against the xG: New York Red Bulls had 54% |
| Orlando City SC 2–2 Philadelphia Union | 0.83–0.93 | 31% · 33% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Houston Dynamo 4–1 San Jose Earthquakes | 3.34–0.68 | 87% · 9% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Houston Dynamo |
| St. Louis City SC 1–3 Real Salt Lake | 0.73–1.04 | 25% · 33% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Real Salt Lake |
| LAFC 1–0 Seattle Sounders | 1.14–0.48 | 52% · 32% · 16% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
| Portland Timbers 1–2 Chicago Fire | 1.10–1.29 | 32% · 28% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Chicago Fire |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.