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10 of 10 matches with xG: 25 goals from 29.6 xG (0.84 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Sounders 0–2 Atlanta United FC | 1.11–1.14 | 35% · 29% · 36% | Win in line with xG for Atlanta United FC |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 0–1 San Jose Earthquakes | 1.77–0.64 | 65% · 22% · 13% | Won against the xG: San Jose Earthquakes |
| LAFC 4–0 Colorado Rapids | 2.87–0.63 | 83% · 12% · 6% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
| Charlotte 2–1 LAFC | 1.78–2.26 | 31% · 20% · 49% | Close call, Charlotte won |
| FC Cincinnati 3–0 New York City FC | 1.21–1.05 | 40% · 29% · 32% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
| Columbus Crew 2–0 Toronto FC | 2.85–1.23 | 71% · 15% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Columbus Crew |
| DC United 1–3 Philadelphia Union | 1.49–2.57 | 21% · 18% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| CF Montreal 1–0 New England Revolution | 0.86–0.06 | 56% · 42% · 3% | Win in line with xG for CF Montreal |
| New York Red Bulls 0–2 Inter Miami | 1.50–2.20 | 26% · 20% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| Orlando City SC 2–1 St. Louis City SC | 1.67–0.74 | 60% · 24% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Orlando City SC |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.