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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 28.6 xG (0.91 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA Galaxy 2–1 Austin | 1.58–1.01 | 51% · 25% · 24% | Win in line with xG for LA Galaxy |
| San Jose Earthquakes 0–1 Real Salt Lake | 0.69–1.30 | 20% · 29% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Real Salt Lake |
| New York City FC 3–1 Nashville SC | 1.50–2.64 | 20% · 18% · 62% | Won against the xG: New York City FC |
| Portland Timbers 0–0 FC Dallas | 1.85–1.83 | 40% · 22% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Columbus Crew 4–0 New England Revolution | 2.51–0.28 | 86% · 11% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Columbus Crew |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 1–2 LAFC | 1.22–0.85 | 45% · 30% · 26% | Won against the xG: LAFC |
| Chicago Fire 0–3 Nashville SC | 1.50–2.31 | 24% · 20% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| CF Montreal 2–0 New York City FC | 0.70–1.73 | 15% · 23% · 62% | Won against the xG: CF Montreal |
| Orlando City SC 1–2 Atlanta United FC | 1.51–1.34 | 41% · 25% · 34% | Close call, Atlanta United FC won |
| Philadelphia Union 1–2 FC Cincinnati | 0.81–1.49 | 20% · 26% · 53% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.