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10 of 10 matches with xG: 28 goals from 28.6 xG (0.98 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte 1–1 FC Cincinnati | 2.35–1.65 | 53% · 20% · 27% | Draw against the xG: Charlotte had 53% |
| DC United 1–0 CF Montreal | 2.16–0.80 | 69% · 19% · 13% | Win in line with xG for DC United |
| Inter Miami 1–1 New York City FC | 2.48–1.16 | 66% · 18% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Inter Miami had 66% |
| Austin 2–1 FC Dallas | 1.11–0.65 | 47% · 32% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Austin |
| Houston Dynamo 2–1 San Jose Earthquakes | 0.47–0.18 | 33% · 57% · 11% | Close call, Houston Dynamo won |
| Nashville SC 2–2 Columbus Crew | 1.68–1.38 | 45% · 24% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Real Salt Lake 3–1 St. Louis City SC | 1.83–0.52 | 69% · 21% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Real Salt Lake |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 3–2 Portland Timbers | 3.17–1.15 | 77% · 13% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| LA Galaxy 1–0 Seattle Sounders | 0.77–1.70 | 17% · 24% · 60% | Won against the xG: LA Galaxy |
| Atlanta United FC 3–0 Chicago Fire | 2.75–0.68 | 81% · 13% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Atlanta United FC |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.