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10 of 10 matches with xG: 37 goals from 33.2 xG (1.11 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Kansas City 2–3 LA Galaxy | 2.58–2.01 | 51% · 19% · 30% | Close call, LA Galaxy won |
| St. Louis City SC 2–2 DC United | 1.98–1.95 | 40% · 21% · 39% | Draw in line with xG |
| Colorado Rapids 0–1 Houston Dynamo | 0.68–0.77 | 29% · 37% · 34% | Close call, Houston Dynamo won |
| LAFC 5–0 Nashville SC | 4.88–0.47 | 97% · 2% · 1% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
| Portland Timbers 1–3 Philadelphia Union | 1.79–1.88 | 37% · 22% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| San Jose Earthquakes 3–2 Seattle Sounders | 2.23–1.45 | 55% · 20% · 25% | Win in line with xG for San Jose Earthquakes |
| Philadelphia Union 2–0 Minnesota United FC | 2.28–0.57 | 76% · 16% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| Colorado Rapids 3–2 LAFC | 1.59–1.09 | 49% · 25% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Colorado Rapids |
| Orlando City SC 1–1 New York Red Bulls | 0.70–1.79 | 14% · 22% · 64% | Draw against the xG: New York Red Bulls had 64% |
| Toronto FC 1–3 Sporting Kansas City | 1.38–1.16 | 42% · 27% · 32% | Close call, Sporting Kansas City won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.