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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 22.1 xG (1.22 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA Galaxy 3–3 St. Louis City SC | 2.53–2.14 | 48% · 19% · 34% | Draw in line with xG |
| New England Revolution 1–2 FC Cincinnati | 1.21–1.03 | 40% · 29% · 31% | Close call, FC Cincinnati won |
| Atlanta United FC 2–0 Orlando City SC | 0.95–0.47 | 46% · 36% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Atlanta United FC |
| New England Revolution 1–1 Chicago Fire | 1.54–0.90 | 52% · 26% · 22% | Draw against the xG: New England Revolution had 52% |
| New York Red Bulls 4–0 Inter Miami | 1.23–0.26 | 62% · 30% · 8% | Win in line with xG for New York Red Bulls |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 1–2 Real Salt Lake | 0.62–0.93 | 23% · 35% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Real Salt Lake |
| Charlotte 2–0 Columbus Crew | 1.47–0.60 | 58% · 26% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Charlotte |
| FC Cincinnati 1–0 New York City FC | 1.42–0.49 | 60% · 27% · 13% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
| Orlando City SC 2–0 Austin | 1.87–0.17 | 80% · 17% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Orlando City SC |
| Toronto FC 2–0 Atlanta United FC | 1.82–0.41 | 72% · 20% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Toronto FC |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.