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15 of 15 matches with xG: 52 goals from 45.7 xG (1.14 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC 1–1 DC United | 1.05–0.90 | 38% · 31% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Charlotte 2–0 Philadelphia Union | 1.07–2.06 | 19% · 21% · 60% | Won against the xG: Charlotte |
| FC Cincinnati 3–0 CF Montreal | 1.45–1.10 | 45% · 26% · 29% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
| Columbus Crew 3–1 New York Red Bulls | 1.94–0.46 | 73% · 19% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Columbus Crew |
| Nashville SC 2–5 Inter Miami | 3.06–3.28 | 39% · 16% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| New England Revolution 2–2 Chicago Fire | 0.65–1.44 | 17% · 27% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Chicago Fire had 56% |
| New York City FC 1–2 Seattle Sounders | 0.65–0.84 | 26% · 37% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Seattle Sounders |
| Toronto FC 4–2 Orlando City SC | 1.63–2.43 | 25% · 19% · 55% | Won against the xG: Toronto FC |
| Colorado Rapids 2–2 LAFC | 1.30–1.71 | 29% · 24% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sporting Kansas City 0–0 Houston Dynamo | 0.85–0.66 | 37% · 36% · 26% | Draw in line with xG |
| LA Galaxy 2–1 Minnesota United FC | 1.51–1.56 | 37% · 24% · 39% | Close call, LA Galaxy won |
| San Jose Earthquakes 2–1 Austin | 2.46–0.37 | 83% · 13% · 4% | Win in line with xG for San Jose Earthquakes |
| St. Louis City SC 2–2 Real Salt Lake | 3.97–0.92 | 88% · 7% · 4% | Draw against the xG: St. Louis City SC had 88% |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 1–2 FC Dallas | 1.71–0.96 | 55% · 24% · 21% | Won against the xG: FC Dallas |
| Portland Timbers 0–4 San Diego | 0.73–2.98 | 6% · 11% · 82% | Win in line with xG for San Diego |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.