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15 of 15 matches with xG: 40 goals from 38.8 xG (1.03 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| DC United 0–1 Charlotte | 0.52–0.51 | 27% · 46% · 27% | Close call, Charlotte won |
| CF Montreal 1–1 Nashville SC | 0.96–1.57 | 23% · 25% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Nashville SC had 52% |
| FC Dallas 2–1 LA Galaxy | 1.40–0.49 | 60% · 27% · 13% | Win in line with xG for FC Dallas |
| Inter Miami 4–1 New England Revolution | 2.58–0.73 | 77% · 15% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Inter Miami |
| New York Red Bulls 0–1 FC Cincinnati | 1.03–1.09 | 34% · 30% · 37% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
| Orlando City SC 1–1 Columbus Crew | 0.99–3.21 | 8% · 12% · 80% | Draw against the xG: Columbus Crew had 80% |
| Philadelphia Union 1–0 New York City FC | 0.90–0.52 | 43% · 37% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Philadelphia Union |
| Austin 1–3 St. Louis City SC | 0.98–2.70 | 11% · 15% · 74% | Win in line with xG for St. Louis City SC |
| Chicago Fire 2–2 Toronto FC | 0.75–1.20 | 23% · 30% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Minnesota United FC 3–0 Sporting Kansas City | 1.62–1.07 | 50% · 25% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Minnesota United FC |
| Houston Dynamo 2–4 San Diego | 2.32–2.31 | 41% · 19% · 40% | Close call, San Diego won |
| Real Salt Lake 1–0 Colorado Rapids | 0.64–2.15 | 10% · 18% · 72% | Won against the xG: Real Salt Lake |
| Seattle Sounders 1–0 Portland Timbers | 1.16–0.56 | 51% · 32% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Seattle Sounders |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 4–1 San Jose Earthquakes | 2.49–0.51 | 81% · 14% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| LAFC 1–0 Atlanta United FC | 1.80–0.08 | 81% · 18% · 1% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.