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15 of 15 matches with xG: 46 goals from 42.3 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City SC 1–1 Charlotte | 1.59–0.59 | 62% · 25% · 14% | Draw against the xG: St. Louis City SC had 62% |
| FC Cincinnati 2–0 Atlanta United FC | 2.25–0.33 | 82% · 14% · 4% | Win in line with xG for FC Cincinnati |
| DC United 1–0 Philadelphia Union | 1.12–0.54 | 50% · 32% · 18% | Win in line with xG for DC United |
| Orlando City SC 1–2 New York Red Bulls | 2.41–4.64 | 15% · 11% · 74% | Win in line with xG for New York Red Bulls |
| Vancouver Whitecaps 1–0 Real Salt Lake | 1.36–0.67 | 53% · 28% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Vancouver Whitecaps |
| Austin 2–2 Minnesota United FC | 1.71–1.63 | 40% · 23% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| FC Dallas 3–2 Toronto FC | 1.61–0.99 | 52% · 25% · 23% | Win in line with xG for FC Dallas |
| Houston Dynamo 2–1 Chicago Fire | 1.18–0.84 | 44% · 30% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Houston Dynamo |
| Nashville SC 4–1 New England Revolution | 2.77–0.93 | 76% · 14% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Nashville SC |
| LAFC 3–0 Inter Miami | 3.26–0.85 | 83% · 11% · 6% | Win in line with xG for LAFC |
| Portland Timbers 3–2 Columbus Crew | 0.94–1.25 | 28% · 29% · 43% | Won against the xG: Portland Timbers |
| San Diego 5–0 CF Montreal | 1.61–0.33 | 70% · 23% · 7% | Win in line with xG for San Diego |
| San Jose Earthquakes 3–0 Sporting Kansas City | 3.03–0.45 | 88% · 9% · 3% | Win in line with xG for San Jose Earthquakes |
| LA Galaxy 1–1 New York City FC | 0.36–1.35 | 10% · 28% · 62% | Draw against the xG: New York City FC had 62% |
| Seattle Sounders 2–0 Colorado Rapids | 1.09–0.60 | 47% · 33% · 20% | Win in line with xG for Seattle Sounders |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.