xG Daily: Wednesday 11 November 2026

Barnsley vs Oldham: Oldham edge expected goals

EFL Trophy · Group North - 7 · 19:00 UTC · Barnsley vs Oldham

Oldham travel to Barnsley in the EFL Trophy, the game starts at 19:00 UTC.

On home ground, over a 10-game sample, Barnsley carry 1.49 expected goals for, 2.19 against per game, while their goals (0.9 per match) trail the chances. That run brought a single win (3 drawn, 6 lost). Barnsley have found the net in ten straight games.

In their last ten matches, on the road, Oldham's matches have averaged 1.74 xG for and 1.74 against, though 0.7 goals per game is less than that xG. On the scoreboard, those games gave a single win (2 drawn, 7 lost).

Taking both records together, our xG preview gives Barnsley 1.61 expected goals and Oldham 1.96. Turned into chances, Barnsley win 32% of the time, Oldham 46%, with 22% for the draw. Goals: 69% for over 2.5; a goal at each end at 69%.

Match info: Barnsley vs Oldham →This is what the chances say, nothing more.

A slight xG tilt towards Sheffield Wednesday against Accrington ST

EFL Trophy · Group North - 1 · 19:00 UTC · Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST

Kick-off at 19:00 UTC for Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST in EFL Trophy action, Group North - 1.

In the most recent ten in front of their own fans, Sheffield Wednesday created 1.58 xG a game and allowed 1.40. That run brought 1.5 points a game (3-6-1). The home side last won more than five games ago.

Away from home, across the last ten, Accrington ST carry 1.23 xG created and 1.57 allowed per game. On the scoreboard, those games gave 0.6 points a game (1-3-6).

Their only earlier game in our records was drawn. When they last met (1 Aug 2026), it ended Accrington ST 0-0 Sheffield Wednesday.

On recent chances, Sheffield Wednesday project to 1.58 xG here and Accrington ST to 1.31. 58% for both sides scoring, 55% for over 2.5. That points to Sheffield Wednesday 44%, draw 25%, Accrington ST 32%. Score most likely: 1-1.

Match info: Sheffield Wednesday vs Accrington ST →It is a reading of recent chances, not a forecast.

Londrina v Nautico Recife: Londrina edge expected goals

Serie B · Regular Season - 38 · 22:00 UTC · Londrina vs Nautico Recife

Serie B: Londrina play Nautico Recife at 22:00 UTC.

From their last ten games on home ground, Londrina created 1.49 xG a game and allowed 1.19, though 1.1 goals per game is less than that xG. The results side of it: 2 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses.

From their last ten games, on the road, Nautico Recife's matches have averaged 1.42 xG for and 2.05 against, while their goals (0.9 per match) trail the chances. In those matches: W0 D5 L5.

The head-to-head: Londrina 0, draws 0, Nautico Recife 2 from 2 matches. When they last met (23 Jul 2026), it ended Nautico Recife 2-1 Londrina.

With both sides' numbers combined, our xG preview gives Londrina 1.77 expected goals and Nautico Recife 1.30. In outcomes: home win 48%, draw 23%, away win 28%. For goals, the preview has three or more goals at 59% and 60% for both sides scoring. The likeliest scoreline: 1-1.

Match info: Londrina vs Nautico Recife →The numbers describe recent chances; they are not a tip.