xG Guide · Part 3 · Chapter 20

Expected assists

Expected assists credit the passer for the chance he creates, whether or not the shooter scores. The trap: the name means two different things on different sites.

Two meanings of xA

Opta's xA: a pass model

Every completed pass gets the probability that it becomes an assist, judged from similar passes. It counts even if no shot follows.

xAG (and xA on some sites): the shot's xG

The passer is given the xG of the shot his pass led to. No shot, no credit. FBref calls it xAG; American Soccer Analysis calls it xA.

Two passes that create chances: a through ball and a cutback. An illustration of where each kind of xA gives credit.

Expected against actual

Opta's worked example: two Liverpool full-backs' expected assists against their actual assists.

Opta's example shows why xA helps: the player with fewer assists created the better chances, and the one with ten assists benefited from his teammates' finishing.

Related terms

Key pass: a pass followed by a shot that is not scored. Assists plus key passes count all shot-creating passes.
xGI: xG plus xA, a player's total involvement in chances.
xGChain and xGBuildup: credit everyone in the move, not only the last pass.

Questions

What is the difference between xA and xAG?

Opta's xA values every completed pass by its chance of becoming an assist. xAG gives the passer the xG of the shot that followed; no shot, no credit.

Is xA better than assists?

It shows the chances a player creates without depending on his teammates' finishing, so it is steadier from season to season.

Sources

Checked 2026-10-28. Methods change: every figure here is dated to its source.

xG explains football; it is not a betting tip. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.