xG Guide · Part 3 · Chapter 19

Goals prevented

A goalkeeper can only stop what comes on target. Goals prevented compares the goals a keeper conceded with what the shots he faced were worth after they were struck.

The calculation

Goals prevented = xGOT faced − goals conceded

A keeper who faced shots worth 12.4 xGOT and conceded 9 goals has prevented about 3.4 goals compared with an average keeper. One who conceded 14 from the same shots let in about 1.6 more than expected.

An example with four imaginary keepers: above zero, they saved more than an average keeper would have; below zero, fewer.

An example keeper's season: where the shots on target he saved and conceded went. Shots into the corners are worth the most xGOT.

Why xGOT and not xG

Pre-shot xG would blame the keeper for shots that were badly placed or flew wide. xGOT looks only at shots on target, valued by where they were going, so the keeper is judged on what he could actually reach.

Reading it with care

Sample size. A keeper faces perhaps 100 to 150 shots on target in a season; a few deflections or fine saves move the figure a lot.
Not everything is in it. Coming for crosses, sweeping behind the defence and distribution are not measured by goals prevented.
Models differ. Each provider's post-shot model gives its own values, so compare keepers within one source.

Questions

What is a good goals prevented figure?

Above zero means better than an average keeper on the same shots. Over a season, a few goals either way is common; consistent figures over several seasons say more.

Is goals prevented the same as PSxG minus goals?

Yes. PSxG−GA, used by FBref with Opta's data, is the same idea under another name.

Sources

Checked 2026-10-28. Methods change: every figure here is dated to its source.

xG explains football; it is not a betting tip. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.