xG Guide · Part 3 · Chapter 18

xGOT and post-shot xG

xG values the chance before the ball is struck. xGOT, expected goals on target, values the shot after it is struck: where it is going and how hard it will be to stop.

Two moments, two numbers

xG: before the shot

Where the shooter is, how, after what, who is in the way. The same for a great strike and a miss from the same spot.

xGOT: after the shot

Only for shots on target. Where in the goal the ball is going (and, in some models, how fast). A shot heading for the top corner is worth more than one straight at the keeper.

Three shots from the same chance, so the same xG. An illustration: a shot into a corner is harder to save, one at the keeper easy, one off target counts zero in post-shot models.

Names and owners

xGOT: Opta's name, expected goals on target.
PSxG: post-shot xG, the name FBref used with Opta's data.
Post-shot xG: StatsBomb's version, which also uses the speed of the shot.
xCG: Wyscout's expected conceded goals, the same idea seen from the goalkeeper.

Every post-shot model gives off-target shots zero: a shot that misses cannot be saved or scored.

What the gap between xG and xGOT tells you

xGOT above xG: the shooter put the chances in better places than an average player would. Over time, a sign of good shooting technique.
xGOT below xG: good chances wasted by poor placement or shots off target.
Goals against xGOT: whether the goalkeeper saved more or less than expected. See goals prevented.

Questions

Is xGOT always higher than xG?

No. A shot that misses the target has xGOT of zero, and a weak shot at the keeper can be worth less than its xG. Strong, well-placed shots raise it.

Why do goalkeepers' stats use xGOT?

Because a keeper can only save what is on target. Comparing goals conceded with the xGOT of the shots faced shows how much the keeper added.

Sources

Checked 2026-10-28. Methods change: every figure here is dated to its source.

xG explains football; it is not a betting tip. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.