Expected threat (xT)
xG only sees shots. Expected threat, introduced by Karun Singh, values every zone of the pitch by how likely a goal is to follow from there, so a pass or a dribble can be worth something too.
A pitch of values
The pitch is cut into a grid. Each zone gets a value: the chance that a team holding the ball there scores within its next few actions, from shooting directly or from moving the ball on. Zones near the goal and central are worth the most.
How an action earns xT
xT of an action = value of the end zone − value of the start zone
A pass from a quiet zone into a dangerous one earns the difference. A pass backwards loses some. A player's xT adds up all his moves.
What it adds, and what it misses
- Credit for progression: line-breaking passes, carries into the box.
- It ignores how the move happened (pressure, defenders' positions) and treats every zone the same for every team.
Questions
Who invented expected threat?
Karun Singh popularised it in an interactive article; it values zones on a 16 by 12 grid by the chance of a goal following.
Sources
Checked 2026-10-28. Methods change: every figure here is dated to its source.
xG explains football; it is not a betting tip. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.