OBV and VAEP
The next step after xG and xT: value every action on the ball, including tackles and clearances, by how it changes the chance of scoring and of conceding.
Two models, one idea
VAEP (KU Leuven, 2019–2020)
Valuing Actions by Estimating Probabilities: for each action, the change in the chance of scoring soon minus the change in the chance of conceding soon.
OBV (StatsBomb, 2021)
On-Ball Value: the same aim, built on StatsBomb's richer data, and designed to judge the action itself rather than the team around it.
What they add
- Every player on the ball gets a value, not only shooters and passers.
- Defensive actions count: a well-timed interception lowers the opponent's chance of scoring.
The debate
StatsBomb argues that models using the history of a possession can import team strength: a pass by a strong team's player looks better because his team usually scores. VAEP's authors weigh these choices differently. Both are newer and less standard than xG, and values are not comparable between them.
Questions
Is OBV the same as xG?
No. xG values shots; OBV and VAEP value every on-ball action by its effect on the chances of scoring and conceding.
Sources
Checked 2026-10-28. Methods change: every figure here is dated to its source.
xG explains football; it is not a betting tip. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.