Xgoals
xG Guide · Part 1 · Chapter 6

xG myths

xG is easy to quote and easy to misread. These are the mistakes we see most, each with what the evidence says instead.

Myth and fact

xGscore≠“The team with more xG deserved to win.”

Fact: xG measures how good the chances were, not who deserved the result. A side can defend a lead well and shoot little.

“Goals should equal xG.”

Fact: Shots either go in or not, so goals swing around xG. Even over a season, a fair share of teams finish well above or below it.

?··“A team that is below its xG is due a goal.”

Fact: Past chances are banked; the next shot does not know about the last one. Expecting payback is the gambler's fallacy.

same xG“A shot on target is worth more xG.”

Fact: Pre-shot xG ignores where the ball went. Only post-shot models (xGOT, PSxG) use placement.

one shot, 3 values“xG is one official number.”

Fact: There is no standard. The same shot gets different values from different providers and model versions.

.79 .78 .76“A penalty is worth 0.76 everywhere.”

Fact: It is 0.76, 0.78 or 0.79 depending on the provider.

setpen“npxG means open-play xG.”

Fact: npxG removes penalties only. Corners and free kicks stay in.

passshot“xA is the same on every site.”

Fact: Opta's xA values passes; FBref's xAG and others hand the passer the xG of the shot that followed.

a person ticks it“A big chance is a model output.”

Fact: It is an analyst's manual tag, and Opta dropped it from its model in 2022.

no pattern“Great finishers reliably beat their xG.”

Fact: Beating xG barely repeats from one season to the next; very few players show it consistently.

max 1 goal“Add up a rebound sequence to see how dangerous the attack was.”

Fact: One attack can produce at most one goal; summing every shot in it overstates the danger.

territory ≠ chances“High field tilt means the better team.”

Fact: Territory describes a match; it is not quality. Pressing figures are confused by where a team plays.

20'90'early = few shots“Live xG at 20 minutes tells the story.”

Fact: Live data is provisional and early totals rest on very few shots.

Questions

Does xG show who deserved to win?

No. It measures chance quality. The result also depends on finishing, goalkeeping and the small margins of single moments, and on how the score changed the way teams played.

If a striker is below his xG, will he score soon?

Not because of it. Each shot is independent; past misses do not raise the chance of the next shot going in.

Sources

  1. Opta Analyst: What is expected goals (xG)? · 2023
  2. Hudl StatsBomb: Expected goals (xG) explained
  3. KU Leuven DTAI: How data quality affects xG · 2020
  4. Opta Analyst: What are expected assists (xA)?
  5. Opta Analyst: Opta football stats definitions
  6. Wharton: Beyond expected goals
  7. American Soccer Analysis: measuring shooting overperformance · August 2023
  8. StatsBomb: Quantifying finishing skill
  9. Soccerment: shots in the same possession
  10. Stats Perform: How we measure pressure
  11. SciSports: event data files (F7, F24)

Checked 2026-10-28. Methods change: every figure here is dated to its source.

xG explains football; it is not a betting tip. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.