Shot-value explorer
Place a shot and watch its value change. This is a simple teaching model of our own, fitted to published scoring rates: it shows how location and body part drive xG, not any provider's exact numbers.
Try it
Our teaching model uses only distance, angle and foot or head, fitted to published averages: about 40% for a central foot shot in the six-yard box, about 7% from the edge of the box, about 3.6% from outside it; headers at roughly half the odds of a foot shot. Real models use 20 or more inputs.
What to notice
- Distance: every step back costs value, fast near goal and slowly far away.
- Angle: move sideways at the same distance and the goal shrinks; so does the xG.
- Header: the same spot is worth much less with the head.
- What it leaves out: the keeper, defenders in the way, the pass before, the pressure. Premium models use them, and they can double or halve a value.
Questions
Is this the real xG of my shot?
No. It is a simple teaching model fitted to published averages. Real models know where the keeper and defenders are and what came before the shot.
Why does a header score so much less?
Headers are harder to direct and to strike hard. In published data they go in at roughly half the rate of foot shots from the same place.
Sources
- StatsBomb (Trainor): How do headers compare to shots? · 2013
- Fantasy Football Scout: What is xG and how is it measured (Opta data) · June 2019
- Bajons & Kook: expected goals models (arXiv) · 2025
- Opta Analyst: What is expected goals (xG)? · 2023
Checked 2026-10-28. Methods change: every figure here is dated to its source.
xG explains football; it is not a betting tip. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.