xG calculator
Two numbers, every chance. Type each side's expected goals and the page counts each side's goals as a Poisson number with that mean: the textbook model, the same one Xgoals uses for its result on xG and its xG table.
From two xG numbers
Goal lines
Every score
Each side's goals are counted as independent Poisson numbers. Real matches are not quite independent: draws come a little more often than this model says, and a red card or an early goal changes everything after it.
From three prices
A price of 2.50 means a chance of 1 / 2.50 = 40%, before the bookmaker's margin. The three chances of a match add up to more than 100%: the extra is the margin. Taking it out, in proportion, gives the chances the prices imply.
How to read it
- xG in, chances out: a side with 2.0 xG against 0.5 wins about seven times in ten on these chances. It still loses sometimes.
- Prices in, chances out: the bookmaker's view, without its margin. Comparing the two shows where the chances and the prices disagree; it does not say who is right.
Questions
Why Poisson?
Goals are rare and fairly independent, which is what a Poisson count describes. It is the standard first model in football analysis.
Can I beat the bookmaker with this?
No calculator does that. Prices already hold the same information and more; this page shows what numbers mean, not what to bet.
Sources
Checked 2026-10-28. Methods change: every figure here is dated to its source.
xG explains football; it is not a betting tip. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.