xG Guide · Part 2 · Chapter 9

Reading a match: shot map and xG race

Two pictures tell a match's xG story: the shot map shows where the chances were and how good they were; the xG race shows who created them, and when.

The shot map

An example shot map (one team, one match). Each circle is a shot where it was taken; its area is its xG; filled circles are goals. Minute and xG beside each.

Position: where the shot was taken. Clusters close to goal mean good chances.
Size: the circle's area grows with xG, so big circles are big chances.
Filled: a goal. An empty big circle is a missed big chance.

The xG race

The same example as a race: each team's xG adding up, a step at every shot, a dot at every goal.

Steps: every shot lifts the line by its xG. A tall step is a big chance.
Steep stretches: spells of pressure.
Flat stretches: nothing created, often after a team takes the lead.
The gap at the end: who created more; the dots show who actually scored.

In the example the home side won 2-1 with 1.35 xG against 0.47: a fair result by the chances. A 1-2 with the same lines would have been a different story, told at a glance.

Questions

Why are circles different sizes on a shot map?

The area of each circle shows the shot's xG, so the biggest circles are the best chances.

What does a flat line in an xG race mean?

The team created nothing in that spell. It often follows a goal, when the leading side sits back.

Sources

Checked 2026-10-28. Methods change: every figure here is dated to its source.

xG explains football; it is not a betting tip. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.