One big chance or many small ones
Two teams finish with 0.60 xG. One had a single great chance; the other six half-chances. Same total, different matches: the first is more likely to score at least once.
The same total, split differently
With one shot of 0.60 the chance of scoring is 60%. Split into six shots of 0.10 it falls to about 47%, and into twelve shots of 0.05 to about 46%. The more the xG is spread out, the more likely a team scores zero, but also the more likely it scores two or more.
Zero, one or more goals
Why it matters
- A total alone hides how the chances came. Shots per team and xG per shot (shot quality) fill the gap.
- Many low-quality shots often come from desperation: shooting from distance when a team cannot get closer.
- Shots in the same attack are not independent: one attack can produce at most one goal, so adding up a goalmouth scramble overstates the danger.
Questions
Is it better to have one big chance or many small ones?
For scoring at least once, one big chance is better. For scoring several goals, many chances give more room. Totals alone cannot tell them apart.
What is shot quality?
xG divided by shots: the average value of a team's or player's attempts.
Sources
Checked 2026-10-28. Methods change: every figure here is dated to its source.
xG explains football; it is not a betting tip. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.