xG Guide · Part 3 · Chapter 25

Set pieces

Corners, free kicks and penalties produce a large share of goals. xG treats each differently.

Three kinds of set-piece shot

Penalties

A fixed value per provider: 0.79 at Opta, 0.76 or 0.78 at StatsBomb, 0.76 at Wyscout. Always the same spot, only the keeper to beat.

Direct free kicks

Around 0.05 to 0.06 xG on average in published Opta-based figures, about one in 17 to 20: a wall and a set keeper make them hard.

Corners and indirect free kicks

The shot that follows gets its own xG, usually a header or a scramble in a crowded box; models mark the situation as a set piece.

Published typical values: a penalty against a direct free kick.

Set pieces on the pitch: a corner into a crowded box, a direct free kick over a wall, and the penalty spot.

npxG keeps set pieces

Non-penalty xG removes only penalties. Corners and free kicks stay in, so npxG is not "open-play xG". Some sites show open-play and set-piece xG separately; that is a different split.

Reading set-piece xG

Teams with strong set-piece routines can outscore their xG from corners for long spells; well-drilled routines are a real edge, but they still show up as shots and xG.
A penalty adds 0.76 to 0.79 to a match total at once; check whether a big total is mostly one penalty.

Questions

Does npxG exclude corners?

No. npxG removes only penalties. Corners and free kicks are still included.

What is the xG of a corner?

A corner itself has no xG; the shot that follows it gets one, depending on where and how it is taken.

Sources

Checked 2026-10-28. Methods change: every figure here is dated to its source.

xG explains football; it is not a betting tip. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.