xG in women's football
A shot from the same spot does not have the same chance of going in everywhere. Opta trains a separate xG model for women's football.
Why a separate model
Opta explains that factors such as distance and the likelihood of a save weigh differently in the women's game, so a model trained on men's shots would misjudge women's chances. Its women's model is trained on women's matches.
What it means
- Compare within the game. A 0.10 chance in the women's model and a 0.10 chance in the men's model are each right for their own game; do not compare raw values across them.
- Coverage is growing. Women's leagues and tournaments get more detailed data every season, which improves the models.
The same idea applies more widely: a model learns from the football it was trained on. Very different leagues or levels can need their own calibration.
Questions
Is xG the same for women's football?
The idea is the same; the values come from a separate model at Opta, trained on women's matches.
Sources
Checked 2026-10-28. Methods change: every figure here is dated to its source.
xG explains football; it is not a betting tip. 18+ · Please gamble responsibly.