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5 of 6 matches with xG: 13 goals from 11.4 xG (1.14 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bangu 0–3 Madureira | 1.17–0.99 | 40% · 29% · 31% | Close call, Madureira won |
| Boavista SC 1–1 Botafogo | 1.43–1.61 | 34% · 24% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Flamengo 2–0 Vasco da Gama | 1.63–0.83 | 56% · 25% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
| Fluminense 2–0 Nova Iguaçu | 1.13–0.69 | 46% · 32% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Fluminense |
| Portuguesa RJ 3–1 CFRJ / Maricá | 0.78–1.14 | 25% · 31% · 44% | Won against the xG: Portuguesa RJ |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.