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5 of 6 matches with xG: 9 goals from 7.5 xG (1.20 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Volta Redonda 0–2 Flamengo | 0.09–1.92 | 1% · 16% · 83% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
| Madureira 0–0 Fluminense | 0.03–0.52 | 2% · 59% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Botafogo 2–0 Bangu | 1.16–0.73 | 46% · 31% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Botafogo |
| Vasco da Gama 4–1 Portuguesa RJ | 0.84–0.37 | 45% · 40% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Vasco da Gama |
| Nova Iguaçu 0–0 Boavista SC | 1.38–0.45 | 60% · 28% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Nova Iguaçu had 60% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.