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5 of 6 matches with xG: 8 goals from 11.9 xG (0.67 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sampaio Corrêa RJ 3–0 Bangu | 2.14–1.61 | 50% · 21% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Sampaio Corrêa RJ |
| Portuguesa RJ 0–1 Nova Iguaçu | 0.77–0.55 | 37% · 39% · 24% | Close call, Nova Iguaçu won |
| Fluminense 1–1 Boavista SC | 2.10–0.77 | 68% · 19% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Fluminense had 68% |
| Madureira 1–0 CFRJ / Maricá | 2.43–0.22 | 86% · 11% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Madureira |
| Flamengo 1–0 Botafogo | 0.91–0.36 | 48% · 38% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.