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5 of 6 matches with xG: 12 goals from 15.5 xG (0.77 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bangu 0–0 Boavista SC | 1.07–1.09 | 35% · 29% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Portuguesa RJ 0–5 Flamengo | 1.67–3.28 | 17% · 15% · 69% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
| Vasco da Gama 1–2 Fluminense | 0.85–1.57 | 20% · 25% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Fluminense |
| Madureira 0–1 Sampaio Corrêa RJ | 1.82–0.45 | 71% · 21% · 8% | Won against the xG: Sampaio Corrêa RJ |
| Volta Redonda 2–1 CFRJ / Maricá | 2.33–1.36 | 59% · 19% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Volta Redonda |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.