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5 of 6 matches with xG: 11 goals from 11.4 xG (0.97 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo 1–1 Portuguesa RJ | 1.26–1.08 | 40% · 28% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sampaio Corrêa RJ 1–1 Boavista SC | 0.80–1.58 | 19% · 25% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Boavista SC had 56% |
| Nova Iguaçu 1–2 Bangu | 1.11–1.92 | 22% · 22% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Bangu |
| Botafogo 0–1 Fluminense | 0.24–1.08 | 8% · 34% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Fluminense |
| CFRJ / Maricá 1–2 Volta Redonda | 1.14–1.18 | 35% · 28% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Volta Redonda |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.