Brazil Paulista - A1 2026 xG Round-Up, Matchday 4

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Matchday 4 in xG4 of 8 matches with xG: 5 goals from 8.6 xG (0.58 goals per xG).
Most xG without a win: Santos 1–1 Corinthians (xG 0.79–1.51). Draw against the xG: Corinthians had 54% to win on xG.
Win most in line with xG: Botafogo SP 1–0 Primavera SP (xG 1.74–0.88). The winner had 58% on xG.
Most xG: Botafogo SP 1–0 Primavera SP (xG 1.74–0.88). 2.62 xG in all.
Most one-sided: Botafogo SP 1–0 Primavera SP (xG 1.74–0.88). An xG gap of 0.86.
Most goals above xG: Santos, +0.21 goals above xG.
Most goals below xG: Velo Clube, -1.09 goals below xG.
Every matchMatchxGChances (home · draw · away)Result on xG
Ponte Preta 0–1 São Bernardo0.50–1.2115% · 31% · 54%Win in line with xG for São Bernardo
Santos 1–1 Corinthians0.79–1.5120% · 26% · 54%Draw against the xG: Corinthians had 54%
Botafogo SP 1–0 Primavera SP1.74–0.8858% · 23% · 19%Win in line with xG for Botafogo SP
Velo Clube 0–1 Guarani Campinas1.09–0.9239% · 31% · 30%Close call, Guarani Campinas won
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.
More matchdaysMatchday 3 · Matchday 5

Match	xG	Chances (home · draw · away)	Result on xG
Ponte Preta 0–1 São Bernardo	0.50–1.21	15% · 31% · 54%	Win in line with xG for São Bernardo
Santos 1–1 Corinthians	0.79–1.51	20% · 26% · 54%	Draw against the xG: Corinthians had 54%
Botafogo SP 1–0 Primavera SP	1.74–0.88	58% · 23% · 19%	Win in line with xG for Botafogo SP
Velo Clube 0–1 Guarani Campinas	1.09–0.92	39% · 31% · 30%	Close call, Guarani Campinas won

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Paulista - A1 2026 xG Round-Up: Matchday 4

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