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4 of 8 matches with xG: 13 goals from 9.3 xG (1.40 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| São Bernardo 0–4 Mirassol | 0.41–1.48 | 10% · 26% · 64% | Win in line with xG for Mirassol |
| Ponte Preta 2–2 Noroeste | 1.55–0.85 | 54% · 26% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Ponte Preta had 54% |
| Palmeiras 3–1 Sao Paulo | 1.21–1.30 | 34% · 27% · 39% | Close call, Palmeiras won |
| Portuguesa 0–1 Guarani Campinas | 1.34–1.13 | 42% · 27% · 31% | Close call, Guarani Campinas won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.