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7 of 8 matches with xG: 14 goals from 18.6 xG (0.75 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portuguesa 2–0 Ponte Preta | 1.72–0.41 | 70% · 22% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Portuguesa |
| Guarani Campinas 0–2 Botafogo SP | 0.57–0.88 | 22% · 37% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Botafogo SP |
| Sao Paulo 2–1 Primavera SP | 1.77–1.94 | 36% · 22% · 43% | Close call, Sao Paulo won |
| Noroeste 1–2 Santos | 0.74–1.04 | 26% · 33% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Santos |
| Capivariano 1–0 Mirassol | 0.71–1.97 | 13% · 20% · 67% | Won against the xG: Capivariano |
| Velo Clube 1–1 RB Bragantino | 2.80–1.06 | 74% · 15% · 12% | Draw against the xG: Velo Clube had 74% |
| Corinthians 0–1 Palmeiras | 1.60–1.34 | 44% · 24% · 32% | Close call, Palmeiras won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.