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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 26.5 xG (0.98 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras 2–1 Cuiaba | 2.69–0.67 | 80% · 13% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Palmeiras |
| America Mineiro 0–3 Fluminense | 1.07–3.05 | 10% · 13% · 77% | Win in line with xG for Fluminense |
| Botafogo 2–1 Sao Paulo | 0.84–1.86 | 16% · 22% · 61% | Won against the xG: Botafogo |
| RB Bragantino 2–1 Bahia | 2.11–0.65 | 71% · 18% · 10% | Win in line with xG for RB Bragantino |
| Athletico Paranaense 2–0 Goias | 0.79–0.88 | 30% · 34% · 35% | Close call, Athletico Paranaense won |
| Fortaleza EC 1–1 Internacional | 1.50–0.92 | 51% · 26% · 23% | Draw against the xG: Fortaleza EC had 51% |
| Atlético Mineiro 1–2 Vasco da Gama | 1.39–1.50 | 35% · 25% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Vasco da Gama |
| Flamengo 3–0 Coritiba | 1.37–0.36 | 63% · 28% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Flamengo |
| Corinthians 2–1 Cruzeiro | 1.54–0.49 | 63% · 25% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Corinthians |
| Gremio 1–0 Santos | 1.59–1.20 | 46% · 25% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Gremio |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.