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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 28.4 xG (0.92 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Athletico Paranaense 1–0 Corinthians | 2.73–0.94 | 75% · 15% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Athletico Paranaense |
| Fluminense 2–1 Bahia | 2.95–1.06 | 76% · 14% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Fluminense |
| Fortaleza EC 2–1 Atlético Mineiro | 0.69–0.97 | 25% · 34% · 41% | Won against the xG: Fortaleza EC |
| Cruzeiro 1–0 Sao Paulo | 0.88–0.88 | 33% · 33% · 33% | Close call, Cruzeiro won |
| Palmeiras 0–1 Botafogo | 2.80–0.75 | 80% · 13% · 7% | Won against the xG: Botafogo |
| Gremio 5–1 Coritiba | 3.23–1.10 | 79% · 12% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Gremio |
| Santos 2–3 Flamengo | 1.63–0.92 | 54% · 25% · 21% | Won against the xG: Flamengo |
| RB Bragantino 2–0 Goias | 1.87–0.25 | 77% · 18% · 4% | Win in line with xG for RB Bragantino |
| America Mineiro 1–2 Internacional | 1.20–1.19 | 36% · 28% · 36% | Close call, Internacional won |
| Vasco da Gama 1–0 Cuiaba | 1.80–0.54 | 68% · 22% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Vasco da Gama |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.