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10 of 10 matches with xG: 20 goals from 24.1 xG (0.83 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo 2–1 Athletico Paranaense | 0.54–1.15 | 17% · 32% · 51% | Won against the xG: Sao Paulo |
| Cruzeiro 0–1 Fortaleza EC | 1.30–1.79 | 28% · 23% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Fortaleza EC |
| Santos 0–2 Corinthians | 0.98–1.25 | 29% · 29% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Corinthians |
| Fluminense 1–1 Atlético Mineiro | 0.51–1.43 | 13% · 27% · 60% | Draw against the xG: Atlético Mineiro had 60% |
| Bahia 1–0 Palmeiras | 0.66–0.82 | 27% · 37% · 36% | Close call, Bahia won |
| Gremio 3–1 America Mineiro | 2.21–0.80 | 70% · 18% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Gremio |
| Vasco da Gama 0–1 Goias | 1.74–0.35 | 72% · 21% · 7% | Won against the xG: Goias |
| Coritiba 0–1 Internacional | 1.56–0.93 | 52% · 25% · 22% | Won against the xG: Internacional |
| Cuiaba 0–1 Botafogo | 1.11–0.84 | 42% · 31% · 27% | Close call, Botafogo won |
| RB Bragantino 4–0 Flamengo | 3.40–0.75 | 86% · 9% · 5% | Win in line with xG for RB Bragantino |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.