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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 28.3 xG (0.92 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba 0–0 Santos | 1.24–0.66 | 50% · 30% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Coritiba had 50% |
| Corinthians 1–1 Cuiaba | 1.29–0.76 | 49% · 29% · 22% | Draw in line with xG |
| Atlético Mineiro 1–1 RB Bragantino | 1.92–0.51 | 71% · 20% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Atlético Mineiro had 71% |
| Bahia 2–2 Cruzeiro | 1.40–2.48 | 20% · 18% · 61% | Draw against the xG: Cruzeiro had 61% |
| Botafogo 2–0 Fortaleza EC | 3.24–0.38 | 91% · 7% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Botafogo |
| America Mineiro 2–2 Athletico Paranaense | 1.80–0.83 | 60% · 23% · 17% | Draw against the xG: America Mineiro had 60% |
| Sao Paulo 0–2 Palmeiras | 1.36–0.75 | 51% · 28% · 21% | Won against the xG: Palmeiras |
| Internacional 2–1 Vasco da Gama | 1.61–0.88 | 55% · 25% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Internacional |
| Flamengo 3–0 Gremio | 1.63–2.01 | 32% · 21% · 47% | Close call, Flamengo won |
| Goias 2–2 Fluminense | 2.38–1.20 | 64% · 19% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Goias had 64% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.